Finland’s regional climate change scenarios

The tool provides regional climate information

The interactive mapping tool for Finland’s regional climate change offers the possibility to examine how temperature and precipitation are expected to change in Finland and its regions. Climate change affects regions differently, making regional information essential. The tool helps to visualise how, for example, milder winters or wetter summers may impact specific areas.

Information about expected changes helps to assess how climate change will affect daily life, nature, and livelihoods. A regional perspective makes climate change more tangible and supports adaptation to a changing climate. The tool can be used by citizens, students, and decision-makers – anyone who needs visual information about Finland’s climate change.

The tool displays selected data on maps and charts

The tool includes a map of Finland’s regions, two charts, and menus for selecting what is shown on the map and charts (figure 1). Both the map and charts update based on user selections.

The tool presents climate data as 30-year averages, meaning that mid-century values (2050) represent conditions for the period 2035–2064. The upper chart shows monthly averages, and the lower chart shows annual averages.

Users can download chart data as image or data files. The data can be used freely, provided the source is cited: Climateguide.fi and the Finnish Meteorological Institute.

From the menus, users can select region, result type, data type, emission scenario, and period:

• Region: Select an individual region or all of Finland. Regions can also be selected directly from the map.
• Result type: Compare with the current climate (1991–2020) or view absolute values.
• Data type: Choose temperature (average) or precipitation.
• Scenario: Select one of four greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The map shows one scenario at a time, but the charts display all four simultaneously. Individual scenarios can be hidden or shown by clicking their names above the charts.
• Period: Choose near future (2030), mid-century (2050), or end of century (2085).
• Clear selection: Returns to the default view with all of Finland selected.

The tool shows four different future scenarios

The tool can display climate change according to four emission scenarios which describe different future development paths for greenhouse gas emissions:

• Low emissions SSP1-2.6: Very effective mitigation measures. Global temperature increase about 1.8 °C (uncertainty range 1.3–2.4 °C).
• Intermediate SSP2-4.5: Partial success of climate policy. Global temperature increase about 2.7 °C (2.1–3.5 °C).
• Relatively high emissions SSP3-7.0: Climate policy mostly fails. Global temperature increase about 3.6 °C (2.8–4.6 °C).
• Very high emissions SSP5-8.5: Complete failure to limit emissions. Global temperature increase about 4.4 °C (3.3–5.7 °C). [1]

Estimates are based on 28 global CMIP6 climate models [1]. The data uses a 10 × 10 km grid in Finland’s official map projection (EPSG:3067 – ETRS89/TM35FIN). Original data can be downloaded in .csv format from the Paituli geospatial service [2].